This is a repost from https://gcaptain.com/la-nina-conditions-return/
La Niña conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific and are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with forecasters predicting a 55% chance of transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by early 2026.
“La Niña conditions emerged in September 2025, as indicated by the expansion of below-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean,” according to the latest NOAA assessment. The weekly Niño-3.4 index value has reached -0.5°C, confirming the onset of the phenomenon.
The current La Niña event is characterized by negative subsurface temperature anomalies and easterly low-level wind patterns over the western and east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection over Indonesia and suppressed activity near the Date Line further confirm the pattern.
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Maritime interests, particularly those involved with the Panama Canal, are closely monitoring this development. A strong El Niño in 2023 caused historic low water levels in Gatun Lake, forcing significant restrictions on canal transits and draft limitations. However, as weather patterns shifted toward La Niña in late 2024 and early 2025, increased precipitation allowed the ACP to restore full transit capacity and stabilize operations.
The Panama Canal on Wednesday reported impressive financial results for fiscal year 2025, with revenues increasing by 14.4% to $5.7 billion. Vessel transits also rose 19.3% year-on-year to 13,404 during the 12-month period ending September 30.
According to the NOAA report, the current La Niña is expected to remain weak, with the 3-month average Niño-3.4 index value projected to stay between -0.5°C and -0.9°C. While a weak La Niña typically produces less pronounced climate impacts, it may still influence regional weather patterns through winter 2025-26.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for November 13, 2025, when further updates will be provided.